President Emmanuel Macron of France is a complicated U.S. ally.
Macron often undermines U.S. security concerns in relation to China. Yes, a French warship joined South China Sea exercises with the United States and the Philippines last week. But Macron will now fete Xi with a state visit beginning on Sunday. For just one example of why this matters, consider China’s increased access to the French technology sector (which Macron says is on the table). Macron claims any technology sharing would be focused on civilian concerns. The problem is that China exploits any and all Western technology and research it accesses in order to strengthen the People’s Liberation Army. That puts American lives at greater risk in the event of any future, and likely, U.S.-China war.
Still, when it comes to Europe’s defense, Macron is proving an increasingly critical U.S. partner.
While Macron retains his lofty call for European “strategic autonomy,” that term no longer simply constitutes an excuse to ignore U.S. security concerns and appease China in return for Beijing’s increased trade. Macron is now putting teeth on strategic autonomy in a manner that manifestly bolsters Europe’s security. If he continues on this path via action as well as rhetoric, European strategic autonomy will become something that the U.S. should embrace.
Building a bridge over what was once a great chasm between Macron’s rhetoric and action, France has now enacted significant defense spending boosts. But Macron’s new leadership is also striking. Take Macron’s interview with the Economist, published on Thursday. Expounding on his recent warning that the future deployment of Western forces to Ukraine could not be ruled out, Macron said that troop deployments would need to “legitimately” be considered if Russia were to secure a major breakthrough of Ukrainian defensive lines. Macron added, “I have a clear strategic objective: Russia cannot win in Ukraine… If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe. Who can pretend that Russia will stop there? What security will there be for the other neighboring countries, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and the others?”
Macron knows what every Western intelligence service knows: that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conquest of Ukraine would inspire his confidence to then swallow up the Baltic States. The former banker noted that Ukraine’s collapse to Russia would mean “an economic risk for [Europe’s] prosperity” and “an existential risk of internal incoherence and disruption to the functioning of our democracies.” Macron is referring to a likely scenario in which a victorious Russia would dangle its military power over Europe like a dagger, blackmailing populations and their leaders with the threat of a new war. European democratic sovereignty would perish under Putin’s now-vindicated imperial dreams.
Macron’s comments join alongside his recent warning that “Europe clearly faces a moment when it will be necessary not to be cowards.” This was most clearly a message to Germany, which is astonishingly weak in the face of Russian intimidation tactics. But other European Union powers such as Spain, Italy and Belgium also remain far too reluctant to act in recognition of Russia’s threat. Macron is also clearly motivated by the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. He knows that Trump part deux would mean a U.S. that is potentially less willing to support NATO. While Trump says he would “100%” order a U.S. military defense of NATO’s eastern flank allies (all of whom exceed the alliance’s 2%-of-gross domestic product spending target), Macron recognizes that Trump’s patience with European freeloaders such as Spain is likely depleted.
Yet the key takeaway from this Economist interview is clearly Macron’s formulation of what might lead him to send French military forces to Ukraine, namely a Russian “breakthrough.” Macron appears to mean a breakthrough that threatens the fall of Kyiv and displacement of the Ukrainian government. And while it might seem ridiculous that Western forces would fight in Ukraine under any scenario, Macron’s conditions are far more credible than they first appear.
After all, Macron is not talking here about a NATO or U.S.-involved intervention but rather a contingency European coalition of the willing. It is probable that Poland and perhaps also the United Kingdom (which, as the Washington Examiner first reported, has long had special forces operating in forward positions in Ukraine) would join a French expeditionary force under Macron’s “breakthrough” conditions. Indeed, recent U.K.-French reaffirmations of the 1904 Entente Cordiale agreements were not simply symbolic but also represent shared Anglo-French concerns over the destabilizing security environment in Europe. The U.K. has recently pledged its own major defense spending boosts.
This is not something Vladimir Putin can easily ignore. A significant Anglo-French-Polish military intervention in Ukraine would have the very credible potential of rapidly holding Russian forces in place before destroying Russia’s means of sustaining its offensive ground action. This force would then attempt to exploit Russian command and logistics weaknesses to create exploitable gaps for a counteroffensive.
One consideration remains, of course. The nuclear factor.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
But his oft-dangled threats to the contrary, there are three reasons why Putin would be highly unlikely to employ nuclear weapons in the event Western forces joined the fight. First, Putin would be at very significant risk of being shot by the Russian general staff or otherwise overthrown if he issued such an order. Second, China would very likely abandon Russia in fear of losing all economic relations with Europe and the U.S. if it did not do so. Third, the Russian leader’s much-vaunted new weapon systems aside, he knows Russia would lose a nuclear war with the West.
In short, Macron’s leadership is necessary and praiseworthy in constituting a new concern that the Kremlin cannot ignore.
