Secretary of State Antony Blinken famously declared, “Diplomacy is back,” he but confuses diplomacy with affability. Guitar jamming in Ukraine is already Blinken’s Michael-Dukakis-in-a-tank moment. Dictators see in Blinken a man around whom they can run circles.
During the Trump years, NATO allies paid up; today, they again stick America with the bill. Two-bit dictators such as Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev mock and belittle American diplomats without fear of consequence. Eritrea continues to imprison an Eritrean employee of the U.S. Embassy. To harass American diplomats serving in Cuba, Cuban agents often kill their family pets.
Turkey provides a case in point about how coercion can trump consultation. Backbone matters.
There is no doubt Turkey is problematic. After two decades of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strongman rule, Turkey has become a money-laundering hub, the world’s worst prison for journalists, a human rights black hole, and a terrorism sponsor in all but name. Erdogan’s brownshirts assaulted peaceful protestors not only in Ankara but also in Washington, D.C. Erdogan extorted NATO and put the alliance at risk for ego and greed. Ukraine may be the front line of the defense of the free world, but rather than stand firm for Kyiv, Turkey plays both sides.
Turkey’s terrorism sponsorship is problematic. Erdogan may complain about U.S. partnership with Syrian Kurds, but that alliance came about only because Turkey provided aid and sustenance to the Islamic State. More recently, Erdogan has scrambled to become Iran’s coequal in sponsorship of Hamas.
On May 13, Erdogan hosted Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. After Mitsotakis referred to Hamas as a terrorist group, Erdogan chided him. “If you call Hamas a ‘terrorist organization,’ this would sadden us,” he said. “We don’t deem Hamas a terrorist organization … More than 1,000 members of Hamas are under treatment in hospitals across our country,” Erdogan added.
Put aside the numerous sanctionable lines Erdogan crossed. Diplomatically, Erdogan is an expert hypocrite. He has become so accustomed to Western weakness that he no longer fears Western counterparts seizing the precedents he creates to the West’s advantage and Turkey’s misfortune.
When Erdogan spoke about revising the 1923 Lausanne Treaty that set modern Turkey’s borders, no Western official suggested that might mean Turkey conceding territory to allow the Greek community, ethnically cleansed alongside the Armenians, to return. Had Washington, Athens, and other European states used the opportunity to demand the return of Smyrna, Erdogan might think twice about aggression.
The same holds true for Turkey’s support for statehood in northern Cyprus, a region its army occupies, or for Hamas, a group whose covenant calls for Israel’s eradication. If Erdogan is going to declare Hamas a legitimate insurgent group, why should the State Department not respond by declaring the Kurdistan Workers Party a legitimate organization? The United States could go further by offering PKK members and other Kurds, wounded by Turkey’s drone and jets, free medical care in the U.S. Erdogan might whine and bluster, but a stronger State Department could then simply point the finger back at Erdogan and the precedents he embraced.
A more aggressive diplomatic posture, defined by extreme prickliness and backbone rather than supplication and scoliosis, would pay dividends. The mere mention of relative minor tariffs in response to Erdogan’s seizure of Pastor Andrew Brunson set the Turkish dictator backpedaling in an effort to make amends.
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Effective diplomacy requires the secretary of State to be more pit bull, less golden retriever. His bite should be as bad as his bark; he should not roll on his back with his proverbial tail between his legs.
It is time for a fundamental rethink of American diplomacy. The State Department could begin by labeling not only northern Cyprus occupied, but also eastern Turkey. If Erdogan describes Hamas as the legitimate representative of the Palestinians, then the U.S. should consider the PKK as the legitimate representative of Turkish-occupied Kurdistan. Erdogan is long overdue for a dose of his own medicine.
Michael Rubin is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
