In the aftermath of the George Floyd killing in the summer of 2020, a sea of middle-class white protesters in my former hometown of Denver ritualistically writhed and moaned face-down on the grass for nine minutes in a park. It’s difficult to believe in hindsight that such creepy and transparent virtue-signaling ever took place. But middle-class white liberals were in a tailspin at the time. The often contradictory codes of “woke” social etiquette had knotted their brains; they were simultaneously confused and fighting mad, and above all, they were desperate to appear to be standing on the “right side of history.” So strong was this urge as they packed into the park in Denver that day that even the rules of social distancing were suspended, as well as the science™ upon which they were based.
These folks have come to mind frequently in recent weeks as a spate of newly released polls on minority voter preferences suggest unprecedented levels of minority support for — gulp — former President Donald Trump and his Republican Party. Indeed, if these surveys are to be believed, American politics is undergoing a racial realignment unseen since the passage of the Civil Rights Act. In response to nearly a decade of white liberal virtue-signaling and pearl-clutching over a supposedly racist and xenophobic politician, minority voters appear to be ditching their self-appointed saviors en masse.
Numerous polls signal the shift. The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows Trump not merely closing the gap with Hispanic voters, but running ahead of President Joe Biden with Hispanics by 6 points. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll also found Trump in the lead with Hispanics by a single point, while a new poll by the American Principles Project found Trump and Biden running even with Hispanics in swing states.
This is, of course, the same Trump who white liberals compared to Hitler for proposing a southern border wall and using the term “bad hombres” during a 2016 presidential debate. And yet, in the preceding years, Hispanic voters have shifted meaningfully toward Trump. He lost the Hispanic vote by 36 points in 2016, but he cut the deficit to 21% in 2020. And if recent polls that show an even split between Trump and Biden are even close to correct, the turnaround will rank as among the most consequential political storylines of the century.
Black voters also appear to be trending toward Trump. Recent data released by Gallup show that the percentage of black voters who self-identify as Republicans is at the highest level this century. While still only at 19%, the number is vastly improved from Trump’s 2016 vote share, which saw him take only 6% of the black vote nationally. Again, if this trend is even close to correct, Trump will win the presidency handily in November.
Given the constant accusations of racism Trump has drawn since appearing on the national stage, in addition to the Left’s extravagant commitment to radical racial politics such as Ibram X. Kendi’s vision of “antiracism,” it is impossible to overstate how humiliating these surveys are. White liberals have somehow managed to repel the very people with whom they desperately sought allegiance.
Some may be quick to credit Trump for successfully expanding the demographic tent of the Republican Party — and in truth, it’s impossible to argue otherwise. However, Democrats deserve the lion’s share of credit for driving away their own base. Their governing record on topics of importance to minority communities is abysmal. Indeed, black and Hispanic families have suffered from school closures, skyrocketing food costs, and open borders that have resulted in cities being flooded with undocumented immigrants. These voters are also concerned by the increasingly radical positions championed by white liberals on matters of sex and gender, particularly in relation to education. And they are turned off by the constant demonization of religion and traditional values, since they are more likely to attend weekly religious services than their white counterparts.
But perhaps more damaging to the Democratic brand has been the constant and grating racial pandering, which is often subtler than the cringey exhibition in Denver. For instance, a recent study in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology found that white liberals “dumb down” their speech when speaking to racial minorities, while conservatives speak the same way to everyone. This “competence downshift” tracks well with the racialist ideas of prominent corporate DEI consultant Robin DiAngelo: Since the summer of 2020, white liberals have been conditioned to “see race” and adjust their behavior accordingly. Conservatives, on the other hand, have persisted in the stodgy idea of treating people equally regardless of race. It isn’t hard to see why minority voters have increasingly drifted into the company of the latter.
CNN analyst Van Jones famously described Trump’s election in 2016 as a “whitelash.” One wonders: What term will he choose to describe a Trump reelection with increased minority support? A “blacklash,” perhaps? A “non-whitelash”?
More important is whether or not white liberals will actually listen to this growing chorus of dissident minority voices. My guess is they will continue to ignore minorities who don’t behave the way they’d like them to — and that they will pay for it at the polls.
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Peter Laffin is a contributor at the Washington Examiner. His work has also appeared in RealClearPolitics, the Catholic Thing, and the National Catholic Register.
