This week, a New York Times/Siena poll found former President Donald Trump holding impressive leads over President Joe Biden in five out of six swing states crucial for winning the White House in November. Trump holds a narrow edge in Pennsylvania and substantial margins in Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada among registered voters. Only in Wisconsin does Biden have a lead, and only by a mere 2 percentage points.
Polls in May don’t predict results in November with exactness. However, the numbers rightly elicit concern among Democrats. Their candidate clearly is behind at this point in the race. He cannot lose those five states and hold any plausible path to victory.
In an important way, the two candidates have switched roles since their first match in 2020. A number of persuadable voters placed the blame for the upheavals and anxieties related to the COVID-19 pandemic on Trump. His own personality also received constant attention. While exhilarating to his base, his acerbic and mercurial demeanor enraged opponents and exhausted persuadable voters.
In 2020, Biden presented himself as the calm, statesmanlike alternative to Trump. When he did campaign at all, he often focused on bringing back dignity and stability to the office. A return to normalcy held powerful sway over a significant segment of the electorate that fall.
Now, Biden sits in the Oval Office. The return to normalcy never materialized. Instead, his tenure has involved the worst inflation in 40 years. Its early moments included an inept, disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. And Biden’s supposed calm stability has looked more like aged insufficiency, a man whose mental and physical energy no longer can rise to the task of the world’s most powerful executive office.
Now, people remember the Trump years more fondly. They even see it as a time of stability in at least one important way — the economy. People’s financial lives tended to be better during the majority of his term and the continued stresses of the moment remind voters constantly of that fact.
The economic point matters greatly. The Times/Siena poll makes clear that family finances now stand as the main issue driving voter preferences. Yes, there are voters who care about immigration, abortion, and wars in Europe and the Middle East. Those will play an important part in how voters decide to cast their ballots this fall. But Democratic strategist James Carville’s phrase, coined for former President Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, remains remarkably predictive: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Biden’s defenders have tried to tell people that things are great. They point to easing inflation and strong hiring numbers. However, people have yet to get over the shock of inflation that started back in 2022. And they still live with its after-effects, witnessed with every grocery trip or car repair. To tell voters all is fine ignores this reality and belittles voters in the process of trying to woo them.
Thus, people seem to be thinking in a way similar to 2020. They don’t like how things are and would like change. This general disposition helped Biden secure many votes from men and women in 2020. Especially important in that story were those who did not particularly like either candidate and among whom Biden seemed to do very well.
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Those voters still exist in significant numbers, as few beyond the most politically infatuated Americans hold any excitement for the rematch that is the 2024 presidential race. But if the American people still do not care for the state of the country, that will fall on the incumbent.
The same wind that sailed Biden’s campaign to victory four years ago now seems poised to return Trump to the White House. If the Biden campaign refuses to see that basic dynamic, it only will have added another reason for deserving defeat.
Adam Carrington is an associate professor of politics at Hillsdale College.
